APC and Tinubu could lose 2027 election, talks heating up as a viral breakdown blames subsidy removal, a weak naira and falling APC votes for the party’s shaky outlook.
A viral breakdown doing the rounds online claims President Bola Tinubu and the APC are headed for a rough landing in 2027, with fuel subsidy removal taking most of the blame. The argument leans on rising transport fares, a battered naira, and a party that’s been losing votes election after election since 2015.
Tinubu 2027 is already a conversation, and it’s not a gentle one.
Someone’s political breakdown has been making the rounds on social media this week, and the core claim is simple enough to repeat at a bus stop: the APC dug its own grave the day it removed fuel subsidy, and the bill is about to land.
APC and Tinubu could lose
Start with the South East. Trading and importation basically run that region’s economy, and the naira hasn’t been kind to either. Once the currency got devalued, importers suddenly needed way more naira just to buy the same dollars they used to. Then add the cost of moving goods from the ports — which got brutal once subsidy disappeared — and even grains coming down from the North now cost more than they used to.
Put all that together and you get a region where people are genuinely struggling. The argument here is that this pain walks straight into the voting booth, with Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi picking up the frustration when the Tinubu 2027 race finally arrives.
The North doesn’t come off any better in this breakdown. It’s still Nigeria’s poorest region, full stop. Transport costs have jumped, and that hits everyone — traders, middlemen, the woman selling tomatoes by the roadside. Throw insecurity into the mix, a problem that’s spilled into the Middle Belt and parts of the South too, and you start to see why this commentator thinks APC’s grip up North is slipping.
Even Lagos and the South West, Tinubu’s own backyard, don’t escape the criticism. Insecurity is a headache there as well, and so is the cost of moving goods and getting imports through. Nobody’s region is immune, according to this take. The South South, meanwhile, gets split between smaller parties in this particular forecast.
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Look at the numbers and you’ll see it too. APC had about 15.4 million votes in 2015. Fast forward to 2019, and it’s almost the same — 15.19 million. Then 2023 came along, and Tinubu took the presidency with only 8.79 million votes. That’s the lowest a winning candidate has scored since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999. APC and Tinubu could lose
Three elections. One direction. That trend alone is doing a lot of the convincing in this Tinubu 2027 argument, because a party can’t keep shedding millions of votes and pretend nothing’s wrong. APC and Tinubu could lose
There’s also a bit of hindsight thrown in, and it’s a fair point honestly. Back in January 2012, when Goodluck Jonathan first tried removing subsidy, both Tinubu and Buhari sided with the Occupy Nigeria protests and pushed back against it. The theory now is that if subsidy had gone then, Nigeria would have absorbed the shock over a decade ago, reserves would be healthier, and the Tinubu 2027 election wouldn’t be happening under this much economic weight. APC and Tinubu could lose
Instead, the hard reset landed in 2023, all at once, and ordinary people are the ones carrying it.
To be fair, government has its own side of this. Officials have said for years that subsidy was swallowing trillions annually while mostly benefiting people wealthy enough to own cars. The World Bank has backed that position too, calling the old system regressive. It’s not a baseless policy — reforms like this tend to make sense on paper. APC and Tinubu could lose
The problem is, paper doesn’t vote. People do. And when fuel prices bite before any relief shows up, patience runs out fast — which is exactly the bet this Tinubu 2027 argument is making. APC and Tinubu could lose
One more thing worth saying plainly: this isn’t a prediction from INEC, a pollster, or anyone official. It’s one person’s reading of the situation, and even they admitted they’re willing to eat their words if it turns out wrong. APC and Tinubu could lose
Still, with the actual election still some time away and APC yet to sort out its own internal mess, this kind of talk isn’t dying down anytime soon. Everyone who’s queued at a filling station has an opinion on this one.
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